Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Both composes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has got something to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
